Mapping Transboundary Climate Change Risk: the case study of the Trinational Metropolitan Area Upper Rhine Area

Abstract

In this study we examine the spatial patterns of risk towards climate change and climatic extremes in the “Trinational Metropolitan Region Upper Rhine” (TMU). Following the concept of risk analysis, we identify the regional dimension of climatic stressors in relation to the socio-economic dimension. We present an indicator-based assessment, which operationalizes risk as a product of its subcomponents climatic stressors, spatial occurrence, sensitivity and impact.We map them individually and aggregate them into a composite index. We also address the specific challenges of the trinational situation, which has an impact on the availability, homogeneity and resolution of comparable data sets. We show that risk can be approximated and mapped despite the uncertainties and additionally we explore to what extent the subcomponents contribute to the overall index. The results show differentiated spatial patterns of risk with cross-border clusters i.e. transnational corridors. Risk is amplified depending on the driving climate scenario for 2021–2050, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, and increases during the course of the century, especially in the transnational metropolitan corridors of the TMU. Further focus on transnational spatial planning and cooperation is needed in future adaption research and practice.